2024 saw Europe’s political pendulum swing decisively to the right. Populist right-wing parties rode a wave of immigration hysteria and economic woes to success in national and EU elections. And even where they didn’t win, mainstream parties mirrored many of their talking points to woo voters.
So what does this mean for democracy?
In periods of turmoil, our political leaders should be a source of reassurance. We should trust that they will listen to us, and use their powers and public resources in our best interest. Known as ‘the rule of law’, this principle is manifested through the rules and systems of accountability - like independent courts and free media - that keep governments and state officials in check.
But the Liberties Rule of Law Report, now in its sixth year, has found that Europe’s democratic recession has deepened. Countries regarded as democratic strongholds are sliding towards authoritarian tendencies and the European Union’s minimal use of its rule of law toolbox has barely made a dent.
Chief proponents of EU values are wrecking their own democracies
To get a whole picture of the health of European democracies, we divided countries into five groups according to their efforts to improve rule of law issues and implement the recommendations made by the Commission's report last year. This gives us a better sense of their democratic trajectory and allows us to catch early warning signals of authoritarianism before they become systemic.
In the first group we had the hard workers. While they may not have the best democratic record, they showed the greatest commitment towards strengthening the rule of law. It includes the Czech Republic, whose government improved the justice system and increased cooperation with civil society. Poland is also a unique case, having become a laboratory for the difficult task of rule of law restoration.
Next we have the stagnaters. Their performance is consistent, but no one is reaching their full potential. It includes Ireland and the Netherlands, who generally rank high in democratic rankings, as well as Greece and Malta, who usually perform poorly. Some countries made moderate improvements, such as Ireland, which showed progress in the areas of justice and media freedom, while the Netherlands made no progress whatsoever, and even declined in the area of media freedom.
Then there’s the sliders. This cohort includes traditionally high performers with persistent drops in standards. France is squarely in this category, as it showed no progress whatsoever and declined in most areas. Germany and Sweden also belong here due to their downward trend. This should be considered a warning sign for countries considered stalwarts of EU values who should be leading by example.
Several degrees worse we have the dismantlers, who sabotage rule of law institutions through deliberate tactics or severe neglect. This includes Italy, where judicial freedom is compromised and journalists were targeted by public officials. Bulgaria and Slovakia have also earned the dismantler label, having weakened civic space, checks and balances and anti-corruption last year.
Right at the bottom, Hungary continues to be an egregious disrupter - far below the EU average, it is in its own separate, lonely category. Its substandard rule of law quality deteriorated even further, regressing in almost all areas apart from checks and balances and corruption, where it stagnated.
Human rights defenders in the firing line
Governments’ disdain of democratic principles is mirrored in the treatment of NGOs and human rights defenders. According to the report, civic space and human rights showed the most combined decline and stagnation, with the Czech Republic the only country that progressed in either area. In most other countries, the relationship between NGOs and governments became increasingly adversarial, stemming from laws designed to undermine their work by depicting them as foreign agents.
The rise in verbal and physical attacks, legal harassment and smear campaigns experienced by NGOs and human rights activists - with those working on migration, climate or issues affecting marginalised communities most targeted - often went hand-in-hand with funding restrictions. Many countries reported a starving of funding sources, an issue likely to get worse as a ricochet effect of Donald Trump’s cancellation of USAid funding.
The clampdown on protests reported last year, particularly targeting climate activists and Palestine solidarity protests, continued. Many countries reported increased and disproportionate use of force by the police and changes in law to further restrict the right to protest.
The EU shouldn’t keep funding countries that trash their own democracy
The current period of geo-political fragmentation, national discontentment and uncertainty about Europe’s security provides the ideal conditions for authoritarianism to rise. Far-right parties thrive on fear and when people don’t feel safe, respect for democracy and human rights is often the first casualty. Democracy’s guardrails can slow down authoritarians but not indefinitely.
Europe needs a united front to weather the shifting international landscape. The EU should lead by example, but instead, it is guilty of similar law-of-law breaches, including politicisation of the judiciary, political interference in the operation of independent authorities, and inefficient prosecution of high-level corruption.
The European Commission should take heed of Poland’s struggle to restore democracy and prevent other countries from following the same path through bolder enforcement. Simply put, governments who trash the rule of law should be subjected to infringement procedures - and cut off from EU funds if necessary.
The rule of law will anchor us during the turbulent times ahead. It maintains people’s trust in the democratic process and their political leaders, creates the conditions for EU collaboration and guarantees economic stability and the effective exercise of economic freedoms. The EU should reinforce it before it’s too late.
This op-ed was originally published on EUObserver.
Trend Analyses
Shrinking Civic Space: How Attacks on Human Right Defenders Undermine the Rule of Law
The Cost of Corruption: How Weak Oversight Enables Wrongdoing in Europe
States Shun Human Rights Law, Further Marginalise the Vulnerable
Reads & Resources
Download the full Liberties Rule of Law Report 2025
Press Release: Decline of Democracy Deepens, EU Tools Toothless: Report
Op-ed: The EU Should Reinforce Democracy’s Guardrails Before it's Too Late
Previous annual rule of law reports: 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020
Photo by Luke Braswell on Unsplash
